Hazardous materials release analysis: probabilistic input for emergency response organisations

In the Netherlands, substantial amounts of hazardous materials are transported by road. Quantitative risk analyses are conducted to indicate the risks associated with these transport activities. In general, classified release volumes accompanied by probabilities are used in these risk analyses. Still, the application is limited to risk analysis instead of also being used for emergency response planning objectives. The question is whether these classified quantities are in accordance with empirical data, both in release quantity and probability. Furthermore, it is interesting to link these risk analyses’ results with emergency response activities. Based upon almost 550 hazardous material road accidents in the Netherlands during almost twenty years, retrieved from the FACTS database, a probabilistic analysis based upon bootstrapping is conducted. The results are compared with the classified used release data in a risk analysis. In addition, even more interesting is the use of these probabilistic results by fire fighting organisations. These organisations namely can use these results to derive their optimised preparation strategy on hazardous materials releases by road accidents.